Magical thinking won’t create jobs: Heritage forecasts for Ryan plan are fantasy

Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.) has produced a magical budget that “strengthens the safety net” by slashing trillions of dollars from Medicaid and Medicare. He also proposes to “strengthen” Social Security by dismissing the $2.4 trillion Social Security trust fund as valueless, based on “dubious accounting.”

It is no surprise, therefore, that the economic analysis Ryan holds up to support his plan is pure fantasy. According to Ryan:

“A study just released by the Heritage Center for Data Analysis projects that The Path to Prosperity will help create nearly one million new private-sector jobs next year, bring the unemployment rate down to 4% by 2015, and result in 2.5 million additional private-sector jobs in the last year of the decade.”

Unemployment fell to 4% for only one relatively brief episode in recent memory, and that was after nearly a decade of strong economic growth. So the Heritage Center’s claim is very bold. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that the unemployment rate will be 5.9% in 2015.

The Heritage Center’s forecasts for the Ryan plan are even bolder in the out years: It predicts unemployment will fall to an unprecedented 2.8% by 2021. Simply put, this is incredible.

After the amazing eight-year run of job growth from 1993 to 2000, when annual job creation averaged more than 2.5 million, unemployment fell to 4%. Somehow, even though the Heritage Center estimates that Ryan’s plan will produce 4 million fewer jobs than were created in the 1990s, the center predicts the lowest U.S. unemployment rate ever recorded.  Literally, the United States has never recorded an annual unemployment rate as low as 2.8% since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began scientific reporting after World War II.

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This is why I have no respect for the Heritage Center… liars permeate every fiber of the conservative fabric!!

Stop already…

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